Kevin Drum highlights a bunch of polling data that suggests that Obama’s core constituencies from 2008 are “magically reassembling before our eyes”. Broadly speaking, over the past couple years we’ve seen a lot of reporting on how women, independents, college kids, etc were “abandoning Obama”. But now, according to these numbers, Obama’s coalition is back, baby! But what is magical about it? I actually think the reason behind this shift is really simple.
During the first years of Obama’s presidency, there was not an election going on. So when folks evaluated the President, they held him against their own version of an ideal President, and not surprisingly, found the real guy lacking. But now that there’s an election, Obama doesn’t have to compete with Bizzaro-Obama. He only has to compete with Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul.
And in these comparisons, Obama is coming out ahead. Nothing magic about it.
520 Chestnut 
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